Armada Of USAF Tankers Just Deployed East Over Atlantic Spurring Speculation (Updated)

Open-source enthusiasts took to social media after all the tankers began popping up on flight tracking software. At its peak, it appeared that at least 28 tankers were all heading east. While there is a multinational exercise in Norway that is about to kick off, that wouldn’t require anything like this level of relocation of refueling assets. There is no other apparent exercise or commitment that would necessitate such an operation. On the other hand, these are precisely the assets that would be needed if the United States were going to change its support of Israel’s Operation Rising Lion, or if there were urgent concerns that the conflict is about to widen significantly.

Outside of some sort of unlikely signalling move, an undisclosed massive exercise, or some other yet-to-be-known long-established commitment, there are four possible explanations for the movements in the context of the Iran-Israel war. Keep in mind that some of these possibilities could be pre-decisional. In other words, the movement of assets could be happening now so that a wide array of contingencies are prepared for and executable options are available very quickly if need be.

1) The U.S. has decided or is preparing for the possibility that it will provide Israel with aerial refueling support to dramatically accelerate its offensive air operations over Iran.

As we have discussed repeatedly for years, and especially since this conflict kicked off, Israel lacks robust aerial refueling capabilities, with just a handful of aging 707 tankers (around seven operational) available to support hundreds of fighter aircraft. This is a massively limiting factor when it comes to sortie generation for long-range strikes into Iran. It also severely limits how long aircraft can remain on station once in their assigned target area and how deeply they can penetrate into Iranian territory.

As Israel gains air superiority further east over Iran, aerial tanking becomes even more important. It also allows fighters to employ direct attack weapons, as opposed to much more expensive, and, in some cases, less effective standoff munitions. Bringing the Israeli Air Force’s heaviest bunker-busters to bear on targets will require Israeli aircraft to be in close proximity to them, in particular. Additional tanker support would greatly help with these efforts.

Arguably more importantly, aerial refueling will enable much better effectiveness when it comes to hunting for and interdicting Iran’s theater ballistic missiles before they can be launched. This is a very challenging mission to accomplish at scale under any circumstances, but even more so when fighter aircraft can only remain over a search area for a matter of minutes before they have to head back for gas. The successful attacks on Israel by Iran using theater ballistic missiles could help justify support for this effort with U.S. tanker capacity. This is especially true if U.S. and Israeli stocks of extremely expensive and hard-to-construct missile interceptors are running low.

So, gaining more aerial refueling capacity will enhance just about every facet of Israel’s tactical jet operations, multiplying the available force to a significant degree. The U.S. can provide exactly this support at scale. Doing so would also keep the U.S. technically out of the direct kinetic fight, although Iran would probably see that claim differently.

2) Joining the kinetic fight.

This would mean the U.S. would enter the air war directly, or is preparing to be more capable of executing that option. These tankers would be needed for such operations, as well as for refueling Israeli aircraft. This, of course, would be a massive shift in U.S. policy, and it could have cascading effects throughout the region, especially in terms of the likelihood that Iran would start targeting American installations.

This scenario could also work in reverse if Iran targeted American interests in the region, with the U.S. then entering the direct conflict. Having the tankers pre-positioned for such a contingency would be very helpful.

3) Preparing to deal with Iran attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz.

If this were to occur, U.S. and likely Arab gulf state military aircraft would leap into action in an attempt to curtail the operation. This would mean the war would instantly widen, and this cannot be done just by going out and sinking small boats. It would require a massive operation that includes SEAD/DEAD and persistent surveillance aircraft sorties. It also means having to hunt for highly mobile shore-based anti-ship missile launchers on a grand scale — an incredibly challenging task. Once again, this would demand large amounts of continuous tanker support. You can read our complete report on the plausibility of Iran closing the strait and what it would take to break Iran’s grip on the waterway in a very recent feature here.

4) Providing a robust air bridge from the U.S. to the Middle East.

This may be the most likely option as it would be needed if major assets are going to start flowing into the region, or at least the option to support such actions is being put into place now. This would include many types of aircraft, and especially fighters. It could also be put in place to support global airpower bomber missions from the United States to Iran and back.

American B-2s are the only known conventional assets that have the potential capability of badly disabling or destroying Iran’s deepest underground components of its nuclear program. We have constantly highlighted this scenario for many years. Pre-positioning a tanker bridge spanning the Atlantic to the Middle East would be needed to support those heavily-laden B-2 operations.

This same bridge can also help American assets get out of the region if the United States evacuates its sprawling bases there out of fears of massive Iranian bombardment.

It’s worth noting that other assets also appear to be moving in Iran’s direction, including a U.S. carrier strike group heading into the Indian Ocean from the South China Sea as this is being published.