Tadej Pogacar cruised home after being led up the final climb of stage 14 by Jonas Vingegaard to add a further six seconds to his lead at the Tour de France on a brutal day in the Pyrenees on Saturday which saw white jersey Remco Evenepoel abandon and Thymen Arensman solo to glory.
Riding through the fog, wind and rain, Arensman went away on the summit finish at Luchon-Superbagneres to finally bring some optimism to Ineos Grenadiers after a tough opening fortnight.
There is little respite on the route of this year’s Tour and as has increasingly become the case, the third Sunday in the race is a transitional stage, but with a bit of a twist.
Stage 15’s 169.3km route from Muret to Carcassonne features only three categorised climbs but there is little flat for the peloton to find rhythm and the final 40km being downhill provides the potential for a game of cat and mouse between the sprinters’ teams and the breakaway.
When to bet
Stage 15 starts at 12.20pm on Sunday.
Where to watch the Tour de France
You can watch every stage of the 2025 live on TNT Sports & ITV4.
Best bet for Stage 15
Wout van Aert
1pt 5-1 bet365
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Tour de France stage 15 predictions
Only the strongest survive at the Tour de France and on a miserable day that saw white jersey Remco Evenepoel abandon, Thymen Arensman rescued Ineos Grenadiers’ race with a solo victory on stage 14.
Evenepoel aside, there was little drama behind with Tadej Pogacar sitting on Jonas Vingegaard’s wheel on the final climb to the summit finish at Luchon-Superbagneres before dancing past the Dane to take second and extend his lead to four minutes and 13 seconds.
As has become the fashion, the third Sunday at the Tour is designed as one for the breakaway, but with a twist.
Stage 15’s 169.3km parcours from Muret to the medieval city of Carcassonne features only three categorised climbs, but the route continues to rise after the riders crest the category two Pas du Sant before a final 40 kilometres descent to the finish.
The intermediate sprint being 59.8km into the day means it might take a while for the racing to ignite. The break is likely to go from there but might be kept on a leash, with a game of cat and mouse likely to ensue as the sprinters’ teams look to set them up after battling through the mountains.
With an added chance of crosswinds, it could be a fascinating day despite the possibility that Pogacar and Vingegaard may call a truce before resuming hostilities in the Alps.
A sharp descender like Bahrain Victorious’ Matej Mohoric is worth consideration but the uncertainty over how things may unfold lends itself to a more versatile rider like Wout van Aert.
The Belgian has looked sharp at the 2025 Tour and might be allowed to attack if his Visma–Lease a Bike leader Vingegaard decides to ride in the pack.
Van Aert is an excellent descender who has also featured in the sprints, and that flexibility gives him multiple options if he finds himself in the mix.
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Tour de France stage 15 profile
Profile of stage 15 of the 2025 Tour de FranceCredit: ASO
Latest Tour de France betting odds
Here are the latest betting odds for stage 15 of the Tour de France.
| Stage 15 winner | Best odds |
|---|---|
| Wout van Aert | 5-1 |
| Mathieu van der Poel | 7-1 |
| Kaden Groves | 14-1 |
| Arnaud de Lie | 18-1 |
| Quinn Simmons | 18-1 |
| Magnus Cort Nielsen | 20-1 |
| Tadej Pogacar | 22-1 |
Odds correct at time of publication and subject to change. Others on request
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Tour de France stage-by-stage guide
| Route (distance) | Type | Description | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 | Lille to Lille (185km) | Flat | Winner: Jasper Philipsen |
| Stage 2 | Lauwin-Planque to Boulogne-sur-Mer (209km) | Hilly | Winner: Mathieu van der Poel |
| Stage 3 | Valenciennes to Dunkirk (178km) | Flat | Winner: Tim Merlier |
| Stage 4 | Amiens to Rouen (174km) | Hilly | Winner: Tadej Pogacar |
| Stage 5 | Caen (33km) | Time trial | Winner: Remco Evenepoel |
| Stage 6 | Bayeux to Vire Normandie (202km) | Hilly | Winner: Ben Healy |
| Stage 7 | Saint-Malo to Guerledan (197km) | Hilly | Winner: Tadej Pogacar |
| Stage 8 | St-Meen-le-Grand to Laval (171km) | Flat | Winner: Jonathan Milan |
| Stage 9 | Chinon to Chateauroux (174km) | Flat | Winner: Tim Merlier |
| Stage 10 | Ennezat to Mont-Dore (165km) | Mountain | Winner: Simon Yates |
| Stage 11 | Toulouse to Toulouse (156km) | Flat | Winner: Jonas Abrahamsen |
| Stage 12 | Auch to Hautacam (180km) | Mountain | Winner: Tadej Pogacar |
| Stage 13 | Loudenvielle to Peyragudes (11km) | Mountain TT | Winner: Tadej Pogacar |
| Stage 14 | Pau to Superbagneres (183km) | Mountain | Winner: Thymen Arensman |
| Stage 15 | Muret to Carcassonne (169km) | Hilly | An intriguing parcours which could suit any number of rider styles – although climbing qualities are a must |
| Stage 16 | Montpellier to Mont Ventoux (172km) | Mountain | All roads lead to the Giant of Provence, where the GC heavyweights are set to do battle |
| Stage 17 | Bollene to Valence (160km) | Flat | Some light relief for the peloton after days of battling in the mountains. One for the fast men |
| Stage 18 | Vif to Courcheval (171km) | Mountain | Three super-category climbs and a summit finish make this one of the hardest days of the 2025 Tour |
| Stage 19 | Albertville to La Plagne (130km) | Mountain | Stage honours may go to the break but the final true mountain stage may determine this year’s race winner |
| Stage 20 | Nantua to Pontarlier (184km) | Hilly | Less punishing that what has gone before but a punchy route which should make for exciting viewing |
| Stage 21 | Mantes-la-Ville to Paris Champs-Elysees (132km) | Flat | After a year away, the race ends in its spiritual home in Paris, where the sprinters will take centre stage |
Scroll >>> table to view
Compiled by Matthew Ireland
Tour de France FAQs
When is the 2025 Tour de France?
The 112th Tour de France begins on Saturday, July 5 in Lille and concludes on the Champs-Elysees in Paris on Sunday, July 27.
Who are the favourites to win the 2025 Tour de France?
Tadej Pogacar is the odds-on favourite to win a fourth yellow jersey after winning the Tour in 2020, 2021 and last year, when he beat two-time winner Jonas Vingegaard by over six minutes.
Who is the defending Tour de France champion?
Slovenia’s world champion Tadej Pogacar won a third Tour de France title in 2024 and lines up as the overwhelming favourite.
Why does the Tour de France leader wear a yellow jersey?
The leader of the Tour de France wears a yellow jersey, or the maillot jaune, to signify their status at the top of the general classification. Yellow was chosen because the race’s original sponsor, L’Auto, was printed on yellow paper.
How long is the Tour de France?
The 112th edition of the Tour de France will traverse 3,338km over 21 stages. The race is 23 days long and encompasses two rests days, on Tuesday, July 15 and Monday, July 21.
Read more …
Tour de France 2025 predictions, tips and odds: Pogacar and Vingegaard going head to head for yellow jersey
Tour de France 2025 polka dot jersey predictions, odds and tips: Mountains classification contenders
Tour de France 2025 green jersey predictions, odds and tips: Points classification contenders
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