Iran is believed to have the largest and most diverse ballistic missile stockpile in the Middle East.
And since Iran’s supreme leader vowed to open “the gates of hell”, those capabilities have been on display.
Waves of missile and drone barrages have been lighting up the skies across Israel, as Tehran continues targeting the country in response to Operation Rising Lion.
Some have managed to break through Israel’s sophisticated air-defence systems, killing at least 13 people and injuring hundreds more.
But with Israel targeting Iran’s nuclear and military structure, analysts say the strikes have been limited.
And if the conflict between the two countries continues, Iran may struggle to keep up.
Iran poses ‘complex’ challenge
Israel’s operation has wiped out members of Iran’s military command and damaged its nuclear sites.
At least 242 people have also been killed, according to Iran’s state media.
Israel said the goal of Operation Rising Lion was to dismantle Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
Iran has been developing long-range missiles for several decades.
It also possesses vast amounts of short-range rockets and potential hypersonic weapons, most of which are locally produced.
According to US estimates, Iran had an inventory of about 3,000 ballistic missiles before Israel’s recent strikes.
The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence said it was the largest stockpile in the Middle East.
US Central Command chief Kenneth McKenzie warned in March of “the growing size and sophistication of Iran’s missile force”.
“Tehran’s missiles, combined with its nuclear potential, pose a complex deterrence challenge,” he said.
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What are ballistic missiles?
Ballistic missiles are much harder to intercept than drones, and waves of missiles launched simultaneously can overwhelm air defences.
The missiles are powered by rockets initially, launched like a bullet from a gun.
They then follow an unpowered, free-falling trajectory toward their targets.
When they hit their highest speed, they become ballistic, soaring to high altitudes before taking a deep and fast dive.
Stephan Fruehling from the ANU’s Strategic and Defence Studies Centre said the effectiveness of ballistic missiles was their ability to stay on a trajectory once fired.
“They fly along a predictable path,” he said.
“They also come in at a fairly steep angle and very fast, so they’re more difficult to intercept.”
What ballistic missiles does Iran have?
Reaching Israel from Iran requires missiles with ranges of more than 1,000km.
The semi-official Iranian news outlet ISNA published a graphic last year showing nine types of Iranian missiles it said could reach Israel.
It remains unclear which missile types Iran used in its recent strikes.
But past strikes have reportedly included medium-range ballistic missiles such as the Emad and Ghadr-1, and Iran’s first hypersonic Fattah-1.
Michael Shoebridge, director and founder of Strategic Analysis Australia, said missiles could be very effective on their own.
They are fast and can carry heavy payloads, but there are limits.
“Some are not terribly manoeuvrable,” he said.
“You need a broader, effective targeting system so you know where to point them.”
Some newer versions have upgraded accuracy and technology that allows the missiles to change path during flight.
Iran used Kheibar Shekan missiles in its April and October 2024 attacks on Israel, according to analysis from the Institute for the Study of War.
Kheibar Shekan missiles are fitted with control fins and satellite navigation, which increase precision and allow them to manoeuvre inside the atmosphere.
Last month, Iran’s defence minister also unveiled the Qassem Basir ballistic missile, saying it was designed to evade air-defence systems such as the US-made Patriot.
Breaking Israeli air defences
Israel said its Operation Rising Lion attacks had targeted Iranian nuclear and ballistic missile sites.
Mr Shoebridge said it appeared the attacks were “sufficiently effective”.
Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Israel have so far included waves of about 200 ballistic missiles, Israeli military officials said.
Two Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) members speaking to The New York Times stated that Iran originally planned to launch 1,000 ballistic missiles at Israel in response to the Israeli strikes on Iran.
They said that Israeli strikes on Iranian missile bases “made it impossible to move missiles quickly from storage and place them on launch pads”.
Iran was also using its Shahed attack drones to help overwhelm missile interceptors.
Israel claims to have intercepted most of the projectiles launched from Iran.
But some have managed to breach the country’s multi-layered air-defence system.
Missiles have hit central Tel Aviv and cities in the north of the country.
Several sites were hit by the latest barrage, according to the Israeli military.
Israel said at least 13 people were killed and hundreds more were injured.
Israel’s robust air defences include the Iron Dome, which is for shorter-range threats.
The Iron Dome is one of the most effective air-defence systems in the world.
The David’s Sling, Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 provide defence against medium- and long-range missiles.
Israel also has US Patriot systems in operation, which have a range of about 160km.
Professor Fruehling said no system was completely foolproof.
“Things will always get through,” Professor Fruehling said.
“And even if you destroy the ballistic missile, you can still have the warhead coming down and exploding.”
Israel lacks ‘bunker buster’ power
Israel said its surprise attack on Iran was aimed at disrupting Tehran’s nuclear program and lengthening the time it would need to develop an atomic weapon.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Israel is among the nine countries that possess a nuclear arsenal.
Israel refuses to confirm or deny it has nuclear weapons.
Tehran insists its program is entirely civilian and that it does not seek to make an atomic bomb.
But the UN nuclear watchdog reported last week that Iran was violating obligations under the global non-proliferation treaty.
Analysts say “the million-dollar question” is how much damage has been done to Iran’s nuclear program.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the Natanz complex, south of Tehran, was one of the sites targeted in Israel’s strikes.
The International Atomic Energy Agency later confirmed Natanz had been struck.
Mr Shoebridge said the Israelis would have difficulty destroying the deep underground facilities in places such as Fordo and Natanz.
“The Israelis don’t have the deep bunker-busting types of weapons,” he said.
They would need the equivalent of an American 30,000-pound bomb, but they only had access to a 5,000-pound (2,270kg) munition, he added.
Conflict unlikely to end soon
Israel has assassinated senior military and nuclear chiefs, struck tightly guarded air-defence installations, and smuggled drones deep inside the state.
Tehran said its attacks would be “heavier and more extensive” if Israel continued its hostilities.
But Mr Shoebridge said it appeared Iran was already struggling, and the conflict could quickly become “one-sided”.
“Iran has lost its top military leadership, its top nuclear program leadership, and it lost key air-defence sites,” he said.
“On the flip side, Iran has managed to get a very small number of missiles through that have struck random targets.
“If the Israelis keep up the momentum of their strikes, the Iranians are going to find it harder and harder to defend themselves, let alone respond.”
Professor Fruehling said Israel had demonstrated it had “extraordinarily good intelligence on the Iranians”.
And they had positioned themselves to dig in for the long haul.
“This could well settle into a new pattern where actually there will be a low level of war,” he said.
“The Israelis will continue striking Iran until the overall situation somehow changes, which could well be regime change in Iran.
“I think this is going to go on for a while.”
